One out of four represented a dreadful performance -- and a far cry from my 4-for-4 wild-card record last season -- but I'm fortunate that individual player performance is key here, at least in the playoffs' first week. This week, though, the stakes are higher, and in the conference championships, they reach critical mass because lineups lock for good. As such, I -- and you -- must aim closer to perfection this week.

Ravens over Titans: Thanks to my horrible wild-card weekend pick 'em performance, this is the only matchup remaining from my original bracket. But I feel as strong about the pick as I did a week ago, maybe stronger, after watching the Ravens' defense rip apart the normally mistake-free Chad Pennington. Creating mistakes where none previously existed is the mark of a championship-caliber defense.

Panthers over Cardinals: OK, so NFC South teams don't frequently win road games. I learned that lesson last week with the blown Falcons call. Well, at home, the division was a combined 27-5, and the Panthers a perfect 8-0, winning by an average score of 29-14. Oh, by the way, these teams did meet in Carolina in Week 8; the Panthers were the victors, 27-23. The Cardinals' defense is easily the worst of the eight remaining playoff teams, having allowed 26.5 points per game this season (Arizona's wild-card win included). And you know what they say: Defense wins in the playoffs.

Steelers over Chargers: One could make the case that San Diego's defense is actually worse than Arizona's. Counting the playoffs, the Chargers have allowed 350.9 total yards per game, worst of the eight remaining teams. So in what I'm dubbing the "12th Man Bowl" -- yes, cheap ref jokes, but isn't it interesting how each of these teams has been caught up in officiating controversies this season, including in their head-to-head matchup? -- I'm picking the stiffer defense and the home team.

Giants over Eagles: Well, I had the Giants in Super Bowl XLIII in my original bracket and a matchup of 1- and 6-seeds shouldn't change my prediction. But if you're a Giants fan, aren't you at least a little scared by this matchup? Counting the playoffs, the Eagles have won four of these teams' past six meetings played after Thanksgiving, and they always seem to give the Giants trouble right until the final minute.

Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams (@TEN, 6.4 price tag): Be aware, Baltimore bottled up the Tennessee running game for 47 yards and no scores in Week 4.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers (ARI, 6.1): He managed a season-best 23 points against the Cardinals in Week 8; that's 117 yards and two touchdowns receiving.

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (SD, 5.3): In three of the past four weeks, San Diego has served up double-digit points to its opponent's No. 1 wide receiver.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (@CAR, 7.1): Threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8 at Carolina, and I expect he'll be throwing all day again.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles (@NYG, 6.8): Did you know the Giants allowed 508 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in their final four regular-season games combined?

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (ARI, 6.7): Eleven touchdowns in his final five regular-season games, not to mention 17 points against Arizona in Week 8.

Carolina Panthers defense/special teams (ARI, 5.6): For all the Cardinals' talent, they have a predictable offense … throw, throw and throw again. That'll be especially true should they fall behind early in this game, and be aware that as a team, the Cardinals committed 17 turnovers the past eight weeks combined (playoffs included). Carolina sports a skilled defense, is a powerhouse at home and is easily the biggest favorite of the week. Wins are worth five points in this game; that's a huge factor.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers (ARI, 5.7): Counting wild-card weekend, the Cardinals have served up a whopping 38 passing touchdowns in 17 games this season, including two to Delhomme himself in Week 8. This is the kind of game where Delhomme might not have to do a lot to get the win, but then the Cardinals tend to leave more than enough holes in the secondary to allow him to be statistically sound. Another benefit: He's cheap, and likely to last at least another week.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants (PHI, 6.1): He'll be on the injury report this week, but his knee should be at playing shape by Sunday. The Giants will surely need him, as it's their power rushing attack that gives them the best chance of winning against the division rival Eagles. Go back to the Giants' Week 10 win at Philadelphia; he managed the best fantasy day of any running back against the Eagles all season: 24 points.

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (@TEN, 4.9): This is one of the most important games of his career, and it's against his former team, one that he has beaten up for 21 receptions, 162 yards and two touchdowns in three previous meetings. The Titans were routed through the air by the Texans and Steelers in Weeks 15 and 16, and while much of that was a result of the injuries to key defenders Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, there's no guarantee both will be at peak form even if they play Saturday.

Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (SD, 4.4): Though it completed what was a disappointing season, Miller totaled 27 receptions for 274 yards and two touchdowns in his final six games, an encouraging -- and overlooked -- finish. He'll provide you some cap relief at this price, should play at least two games and will be battling a San Diego defense that allowed an NFL-high 165 points by GPC standards in the regular season.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (SD, 6.2): This guy has the moxie to succeed in the postseason; did you know he's 5-2 lifetime in playoff games, and has averaged 18.6 points per playoff game by GPC standards? "Big Ben" might be battling a concussion, but expect him to grit this one out. Only the Cardinals allowed more points to opposing quarterbacks (GPC scoring) than the Chargers did in the regular season.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (@CAR, 6.0 price tag): Pricey, and no guarantee to play. Steve Breaston is a more-than-adequate stand-in; expect a limited role for Boldin.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (BAL, 5.9): He managed 44 yards on 18 carries in Week 5 against the Ravens, one of the game's staunchest defensive fronts.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (PHI, 6.4): Jim Johnson's stifling defensive schemes have limited Manning to 12.8 points per game (GPC scoring) in 11 career meetings.

New York Giants defense/special teams (PHI, 5.9): The Eagles always play the Giants tough; New York totaled 15 points (GPC scoring) in two meetings this season.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (@PIT, 5.7): Count me among the people who doubt he plays. Few healthy running backs warrant a start against Pittsburgh.

Total points: 114.
Percentage: 89.0. Overall rank: 26,444th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 2,093rd.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.